The last eight A380s to be built are on the production line, possibly leaving a void in the market for airlines who need super-sized planes for specific markets, and the answer might be one of the newer 747 models—or so its fans like to think.
One of them, Nicholas Cummins of Simple Flying, offers what he calls a ‘little thought experiment’ to show why there’s still a future for huge four-engine planes. First, he argues, there are some routes where planes with huge capacity can be, and are, successful. Emirates, for example, has some of those and had expected to buy more A380s.
The A350-1000 is not in that passenger size class, and nor is the 777x series, which has been delayed entering service because of problems with its new-model GE engines. Only the 747 could fill that gap.
He also points out that while the A380 could serve only relatively few airports because of size and jetway modifications required to serve it, there are more options for 747 routes, because over the 50+ years of its production, all modern airports have been designed around its specs. And, the 747, though also a four-engine plane, can handle significant freight while hauling passengers, while the A380 can’t. There’s even a 747-400 Combi variant that allows swapping out seating for cargo on the fly.
Ramping up 747 production could be both a simple plan for Boeing, and a complicated one. On the one hand, the factory and the line are still in place, churning out planes, though almost entirely for cargo customers such as FedEx and UPS.
The complicated part of a 747 revival is that as production has ebbed, some suppliers are becoming unavailable; one 747 assembly supplier, Triumph, has closed and its facilities sold off. Boeing would need to find new vendors to take new orders. And, it would have to sell the 747 in a market that is possibly saturated: The airlines that are looking for huge planes might well snap up bargains as used A380s are put on the market by airlines that don’t want them.
