Boeing, which only a year ago was pushing optimistic forecasts of the world’s need for new jetliners is now predicting a figure for the next ten years that’s 11% lower than the previous forecast, or about 220 a year fewer, on average.
The figures, which include estimates for the total market dominated by Boeing and Airbus, as well as regional jets and smaller manufacturers of larger planes, including those developing in China.
The Boeing estimates do foresee an eventual recovery, with a 20-year forecast only a little smaller than was projected last year.
A big question for Boeing is what the effect will be on the company’s own sales as the global pandemic results in long-term industry shifts. With passenger demand down, many airlines may find themselves looking at planes such as Airbus’s A321neo, rather than larger-capacity twin-aisle planes for many international routes.
That could be a problem for Boeing; not only is the 737 MAX, its best competitor in that class, just now hoping to return to market, but the largest MAX variant, the -10, has fewer seats to sell than the A321neo, but costs about the same to operate, and, it has yet to be cleared for commercial flight. The A321neo has been in service since 2017, and, at 240 seats, plus or minus for premium seats, it may turn out to be the airline industry’s replacement for the 757 as an economically-sized long-distance champion.
