Fall airfares rise way above inflation

If you’ve been looking for U.S. flights, or flights from the U.S. to Europe and it has seemed like there are few bargains, you’re not imagining it. Airfares last month averaged 43% higher than September 2021, while overall inflation was 8.2%.

It’s not a one-shot trend, either: Last month’s figure was 33% year-over-year. While normally sharply rising prices lead to a drop-off in demand as consumers postpone trips or travel more locally, it appears that the pent-up demand from two years of closed borders and disrupted travel is just not letting up yet.

And that’s not just domestic: Delta’s president Glenn Hauenstein told an investor call Thursday that travel demand to Europe is unusually strong, although we are currently in the ‘shoulder season’ between summer and the winter holidays. “Demand for trans-Atlantic travel is extending well into the fall. Starting in October, we anticipate flying more trans-Atlantic capacity than 2019,” he said.

Holiday fares are also likely to be high; the flight booking service Hopper says that Christmas fares are up 55% over last year, and 19% higher than 2019, the last pre-pandemic year. But, some surveys indicate that a breaking point may be in the offing; Bankrate says that of the 43% of American adults who plan to travel over the holidays, 79% are changing at least some of their travel plans because of inflation.

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