That unpleasant feeling when the captain asks everyone to return to seats and buckle up because of turbulence may be getting more common and more serious, according to British scientists.
A team led by Dr. Paul Williams at the University of Reading has studied the relationship between climate change and trans-Atlantic clear air turbulence, and has concluded that incidents strong enough to harm unbuckled passengers could become 3 times more likely.
The study modeled the effect of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere on wind shear and turbulence at 39,000 feet, normal flying altitude for trans-Atlantic flights. Based on estimates that CO2 will double within the century, they found that the average amount of light turbulence is likely to go up by 59 per cent, light-to-moderate by 75 per cent, moderate by 94 per cent and severe by 149 per cent.
For a more detailed (and illustrated) report from the University, click HERE
I wish it were as simple as that, but it’s actually not. Yes, much turbulence can be predicted and charted, but it can’t all be avoided, as anyone knows who’s flown as much as you and I have!
Much of the minor turbulence requires only that people buckle up and wait for the captain to say it’s over, but the issue here is that incidences, and severity of incidents are increasing.
It’s not a huge safety issue for the plane, which is built to take it. It can be serious in the cabin, especially during food services.
I cross the Atlantic 4 times a year. Pilots know where the turbulence is. They don’t fly “blind”. There are times when the Atlantic Jet Stream has winds around 500 mph. So if you were to fly into its narrow path you would effectively be standing still. Coming home, from America to England, Pilots choose to fly inside the Jet Stream so a 7 hour flight can be achieved in under 5 hours. Pilots can fly above or below the Jet Stream and turbulence is a manageable hazard.