Boeing has updated its 20-year forecast for the commercial aviation industry, saying that the world’s airlines will need 42,600 new planes, most of them smaller single-aisle models.
The estimate rests on three assumptions: that passenger volume will outpace economic growth of 2.6%, that airlines will replace about half of their current fleets with newer, more economic models and that the total number of airliners will double over the next 20 years.
Boeing’s forecasters says that 40% of the growth will be in Asia/Pacific areas, 20% each in North America and Europe. They also say that by the end of the period, budget airlines will account for 40% of the single-aisle fleet, compared to 10% 20 years ago.
Some of the demand for those markets may help make the case for new models from Boeing and Airbus, rather than more extensions of the 737 and A320 families. One such proposal, with a radically-different wing design, is in advanced development by Boeing and NASA.
